معادله معکوس در خودروسازی ایران

مجله تفریحی سرگرمی دخترونه

  اخباراقتصادی ,خبرهای  اقتصادی ,خودروسازی ایران

 

در شرایطی که به‌طور معمول، بالا رفتن تیراژ و افزایش داخلی‌سازی قطعات، به کاهش هزینه‌های تولید و قیمت نهایی خودروها می‌انجامد، این اتفاق در صنعت خودرو ایران یا رخ نداده یا بسیار کمرنگ بروز می‌کند. جدا از مواردی که در گذشته رخ داده و همگی اثبات‌کننده این ادعا (افزایش قیمت خودرو با وجود بالا رفتن تیراژ و افزایش داخلی‌سازی) است، اما اتفاق ابتدای امسال نیز به وضوح بر این ماجرا مهر تایید می‌زند.

 

بر این اساس، طبق آماری که وزارت صنعت، معدن و تجارت اعلام کرد، تولید خودروهای داخلی (در بخش سواری) حدود ۴۰ درصد بالا رفت، با این حال، خودروسازان اقدام به افزایش قیمت محصولات خود کردند. در واقع با وجود آنکه تولید خودروهای داخلی صعودی قابل توجه را طی سال ۹۵ به خود دید و در نتیجه بخش عرضه افزایش یافت، از آن سو قیمت‌ها به جای کاهش یا حداقل تثبیت، رشدی قابل‌توجه را تجربه کردند. اگر نگاهی به لیست جدید قیمت خودروهای داخلی بیندازیم، متوجه جهش ۵۰۰ هزار تا یک و نیم میلیون تومانی آنها در سال جدید می‌شویم، اتفاقی که کمتر کسی انتظار وقوع آن را حداقل به این زودی‌ها داشت.

 

هرچند اقدام خودروسازان در افزایش قیمت محصولات خود قانونی و با مجوز شورای رقابت بوده، با این حال این اتفاق، خلاف انتظار عموم بود و تعجب خیلی‌ها را برانگیخت. به اعتقاد بسیاری از کارشناسان اقتصادی، افزایش تیراژ طبعا باید به کاهش هزینه‌های تولید به‌خصوص هزینه‌های سربار بینجامد و در نتیجه، قیمت نهایی کالا کاهش پیدا کرده یا تثبیت شود، با این حال خودروسازی ایران مسیری عکس را در این سال‌ها پیموده است.

 

اگر سال‌های ۹۱ و ۹۲ را که خودروسازی کشور درگیر بحران‌های مختلف از جمله افزایش نرخ ارز و تحریم‌های بین‌المللی و در نتیجه کاهش شدید تیراژ شد، لحاظ نکنیم، روند تولید خودرو در ایران طی ۱۵ سال گذشته معمولا افزایشی بوده است. آمارها نشان می‌دهند خودروسازان داخلی در سال ۹۰ به رکورد تولید یک میلیون و ۶۴۰ هزار دستگاهی رسیدند، اما این موضوع نیز سبب نشد قیمت خودرو در ایران روند کاهشی به خود بگیرد. در سال ۹۳ نیز که تیراژ خودروهای داخلی به لطف توافق هسته‌ای و بعدها اجرایی شدن برجام، بالا رفت، باز هم مشتریان داخلی کاهش قیمت را لمس نکردند تا ثابت شود افزایش تیراژ در خودروسازی ایران، کاهش قیمت را در پی ندارد. احتمالا اگر در این مورد از خودروسازان و مسوولان وزارت صنعت، معدن و تجارت پرسیده شود، پاسخ آنها این خواهد بود که افزایش تیراژ مانع بیشتر گران شدن خودروهای داخلی شده است.

 

به‌عبارت بهتر، توجیه آنها احتمالا این خواهد بود که اگر تیراژ بالا نمی‌رفت، خودروهای داخلی، بیشتر و بیشتر گران می‌شدند؛ بنابراین افزایش تولید توانسته اثری مثبت و قابل قبول بر قیمت نهایی بگذارد. اما آیا این توجیه، منطقی و قابل‌قبول است؟ آیا می‌توان آن را پاسخی مناسب به این پرسش دانست که «چرا افزایش تیراژ در خودروسازی ایران منجر به کاهش هزینه‌های تولید و قیمت نمی‌شود؟» اما جدا از اینکه بالا رفتن تیراژ نتوانسته به کاهش قیمت خودروهای داخلی بینجامد، گویا داخلی‌سازی قطعات نیز آن طور که باید، بر هزینه‌های تولید و قیمت، اثر کاهشی نگذاشته و نمی‌گذارد. این موضوع به‌خصوص در مورد خودروهای جدید بسیار به چشم آمده و قابل لمس است، چه آنکه داخلی‌سازی آنها معمولا نمی‌تواند مانع افزایش قیمت شان شود. شاهد مثال این ماجرا، تندر-۹۰ است، خودرویی که با وجود بالا رفتن داخلی‌سازی آن (و البته افزایش تیراژ)، مشتریان ایرانی تقریبا هیچ‌گاه کاهش قیمت این محصول را لمس نکردند.

 

در حال حاضر نیز نگرانی افزایش قیمت و بی‌اعتمادی عمومی به کاهش قیمت خودروهای جدید از ناحیه افزایش داخلی‌سازی و تیراژ، وجود دارد و می‌توان در این مورد، پژو ۲۰۰۸ را مثال زد. این محصول که اولین خودرو پسابرجامی کشور به شمار می‌رود، در فاز اول با قیمتی بین ۹۰ تا ۱۰۰ میلیون تومان عرضه خواهد شد و دلیل این قیمت بالا را باید در داخلی‌سازی بسیار اندک آن جست‌وجو کرد. در این شرایط اگرچه انتظار می‌رود با افزایش داخلی‌سازی ۲۰۰۸ و همچنین بالا رفتن تیراژ، قیمت این خودرو پایین بیاید، با این حال تجربه نشان داده رخ دادن چنین اتفاقی در خودروسازی کشور تقریبا غیرممکن است.

 

اما چرا چنین اتفاقی در خودروسازی ایران رخ می‌دهد و مشتریان نمی‌توانند کاهش قیمت رسمی خودروهای داخلی را لمس کنند؟ در این مورد، حسن کریمی سنجری کارشناس خودرو کشور به« دنیای اقتصاد» می‌گوید: شاید بتوان دلیل کلی این موضوع را ضعف یا نبود تولید رقابتی در صنعت خودرو کشور دانست، هرچند این موضوع خود ریشه در مسائل مختلفی از جمله بهره‌وری پایین، هزینه‌های جاری و هزینه‌های سربار غیر استاندارد و همچنین تحمیل برخی هزینه‌ها از خارج از بنگاه به خودروسازان دارد.

 

او به اشاره به اینکه یکی از دلایل مهم در این ماجرا، ضعف بهره‌وری در صنعت خودرو و همچنین قطعه‌سازی کشور است، می‌افزاید: در دنیا می‌توان یک خودرو را مثلا با یک نفر نیروی انسانی به تولید رساند، اما در خودروسازی ایران مثلا ۵ نفر برای ساخت یک محصول نیاز است و این یعنی پایین بودن بهره‌وری و در نتیجه بالا رفتن هزینه‌های تولید و قیمت تمام شده. کریمی سنجری تاکید می‌کند: قطعه‌سازان کشور نیز بهره‌وری بالایی ندارند و این موضوع از ضعف تکنولوژی در خطوط تولید آنها سرچشمه می‌گیرد و به نوبه خود بر بالا رفتن هزینه‌های تولید قیمت نهایی خودروها اثر می‌گذارد.

 

این کارشناس اما با اشاره به اینکه «تولید ناب» نیز در خودروسازی ایران معنایی ندارد، می‌گوید: خودروسازان خارجی با رعایت اصل «تولید ناب» که بر حذف هزینه‌های انبارداری تاکید دارد، کاهش هزینه می‌دهند، اما در صنعت خودرو ایران اینگونه نیست. به گفته وی، طبق قاعده «تولید ناب»، قطعات موردنیاز خودروسازان سر وقت و به اصطلاح on time در اختیار خودروسازان قرار می‌گیرد که به نوبه خود بر کاهش هزینه‌ها اثر می‌گذارد. کریمی اما در نهایت تاکید می‌کند هزینه‌های زیادی به خودروسازان تحمیل می‌شود و چون آنها برنامه مدون و دقیقی برای کاهش هزینه‌ها ندارند، در نتیجه قیمت محصولات تولیدی حتی با افزایش تیراژ و داخلی‌سازی نیز پایین نمی‌آید و حتی بالاتر هم می‌رود.

 

 اخبار اقتصادی  –  دنیای اقتصاد 

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